Bipartisan POLLING

Both Parties want one FEDERAL rulebook.

When asked to choose between a single set of federal rules — similar to how the stock market is regulated — and letting each of the 50 states regulate on its own, voters choose the former.

67% Agree:
Adults should decide for themselves.

67%

64% of Democrats
74% of Republicans

“Adults should have the freedom to decide for themselves whether to participate in prediction markets.”

8 to 1 WANT THE FREEDOM TO DECIDE

Among Republican voters, the freedom-to-decide argument moves 50% toward support and just 6% against.

The under-35 majority

52% of voters under 35 have already engaged with prediction markets.

Of those who haven’t, 55% say they’re interested.

+54

Republican men under 45 favor keeping prediction markets legal by a 54-point margin — 68% to 14%.

Methodology

Fabrizio Lee & Associates surveyed 800 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationally, May 11–13, 2026 (margin of error ±3.5% at the 95% confidence level), with an oversample of 454 Republican-leaning men under 45 surveyed May 14–16, 2026 (±4.6%).

Global Strategy Group conducted an online survey of 1,000 nationwide likely voters and 600 battleground state likely voters (GA, NC, NH, ME, MI, OH, AK), April 23–29, 2026 (±3.1% nationwide, ±4.0% battleground).

Read the full memo →

Read Semafor’s coverage of the findings →