Advancing consumer access to prediction markets.

The Coalition for Prediction Markets is a bipartisan coalition committed to fair and transparent access to prediction markets. We work with policymakers, regulators, and the public to support the responsible development of federally regulated markets, grounded in strong market integrity, supervised consumer access, and responsible innovation.

Members

The Current Landscape

Prediction markets are federally regulated financial markets governed by the Commodity Exchange Act and Dodd-Frank. Today, casino interests and state regulators are attacking that federal framework to block consumer access and expand their own authority.

This reality poses several issues for companies and consumers alike:

State interference threatens a clear federal framework. Congress created a national commodities framework because these markets operate across state lines and require uniform oversight. Yet state gaming regulators are attempting to impose fifty different gambling-style regimes on federally supervised exchanges. Courts have reinforced important elements of the federal framework, including federal preemption over swaps, even as litigation continues over how particular contracts should be classified. Continued state intervention only creates greater uncertainty, higher compliance costs, and less access for consumers — not better regulation.

This is a turf fight, not a consumer protection effort. Gaming regulators and incumbent interests are largely driving the push to treat prediction markets as state-regulated gambling to extend their authority over a competing product. Prediction markets operate differently from sportsbooks or traditional casinos: no house takes the other side, participants set market prices, and the exchange does not profit from customer losses.

Blocking the regulated market doesn't end trading. It ends the protection. Demand doesn't disappear when a state shuts the door, it relocates offshore, to platforms with no identity verification, no anti-money-laundering controls, no CFTC oversight, and no recourse.

Voters aren't asking for this. 67% of people say adults should be free to decide for themselves, including 64% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans. Both parties prefer one federal rulebook to fifty state regimes. The public preference is clear: preserve consumer choice under a consistent federal framework.

Why This Matters

Prediction markets drive trust, access, and informed participation in a data-driven world. Clear, consistent federal oversight is not only a regulatory necessity but a public good.

  • Participants, investors, and policymakers can rely on consistent rules and transparent enforcement across all jurisdictions.

  • Transparent, federally supervised exchanges give people a fair shot – no “house,” no hidden odds – just open markets where outcomes are determined by information, not influence.

  • Startups and exchanges can invest, expand, and develop new tools with confidence when compliance expectations are stable and predictable.

  • Every American deserves equal access to transparent, regulated markets, not a patchwork of restrictions or unregulated alternatives. Manipulation and misconduct are far easier to detect and deter when markets operate under transparent, federally overseen systems, not within a maze of state-level deals. 

  • When markets operate under a fair, federally supervised system, they earn credibility as legitimate financial exchanges serving the public good.