Banning safe markets doesn’t ban markets.
It bans SAFETY.

When states block CFTC-regulated platforms, consumers don't stop trading. They go offshore, to platforms with zero consumer protections, no KYC, no fund segregation, and no legal recourse.

Banning safe markets doesn’t ban markets.
It bans SAFETY.

When states block CFTC-regulated platforms, consumers don't stop trading. They go to unregulated platforms with minimal consumer protections, no KYC, and little to no legal recourse.

Read Professor Harry Crane’s full analysis →

The Research

It is widely understood that U.S. users are active on illegal offshore prediction markets — accessing them anonymously and circumventing restrictions through VPNs. What has been missing is any rigorous quantification of that activity. In June 2026, Harry Crane, Professor of Statistics and Director of the Graduate Program in Fintech Analytics at Rutgers, and a member of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, produced the first estimate.

Read the full report→

U.s. TRADING ON UNREGULATED PLATFORMS HAS REACHED $11–$34 billion ANNUALLY.

This is the amount of unregulated trading volume over the year ending April 2026 attributable to U.S. users.

REGULATION WORKS. UNREGULATED PLATFORMS MARKET SHARE DROPPED 84% → 54% AS REGULATED VOLUME GRew.

Offshore platforms’ share of all prediction market volume fell from 84% in 2024 to 54% over the past year, as regulated volume grew 866%. Given a legal option, Americans take it.

THAT GOES UP TO $133 billion BY 2030 IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

This is where U.S. offshore activity is projected to land annually by 2030 if current trends hold. Restricting regulated access only makes this number worse.

REGULATED v. UNREGULATED

How CFTC-regulated platforms compare to unregulated alternatives on the protections that matter most to consumers.

⛊ CFTC-Regulated Platform

Operate under U.S. regulatory oversight

Licensed platforms operate under rules set by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees market integrity and enforcement.

Require identity verification (Know Your Customer)

Users must provide identifying information such as name, address, and date of birth before participating.

Implement Anti-Money Laundering safeguards

Platforms maintain AML compliance programs to prevent illicit financial activity and suspicious transactions.

Prohibit markets tied to violence or terrorism

Responsible platforms do not list contracts tied to assassinations, terrorism, or other forms of real-world violence.

Monitor and enforce market integrity

Regulated operators monitor trading activity to prevent manipulation, insider trading, and abusive practices.

Operate as transparent exchanges

Platforms match buyers and sellers and collect a small transaction fee rather than betting against users.

Provide consumer protections and clear rules

Regulated platforms maintain transparent contract terms and settlement rules so users understand how markets resolve.

⚠ Unregulated

Operate without meaningful oversight

Offshore or unlicensed platforms often operate outside U.S. regulatory frameworks, limiting accountability and enforcement.

Allow anonymous participation

Many offshore platforms permit users to trade without verifying their identity, including allowing the use of VPNs.

Little to no safeguards against illicit finance

Weak compliance standards can allow money laundering or other illicit activity.

May allow unethical or harmful markets

Without clear rules or oversight, some platforms have hosted markets tied to violent or unethical outcomes.

Limited enforcement mechanisms

Manipulation or abusive trading may go unchecked due to limited oversight or enforcement.

Often resemble traditional betting platforms

Some unregulated platforms operate more like sportsbooks or casinos.

Limited transparency

Rules governing market outcomes, trading protections, or dispute resolution may be unclear or inconsistent.

THE CASE FOR FEDERAL OVERSIGHT

State regulators claim to protect consumers. The offshore market tells a different story.

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Regulation Follows Demand

Demand doesn't disappear. It migrates.

Prediction markets processed over $13 billion in monthly volume by late 2025. That demand is not going away. When state regulators shut down access to CFTC-supervised platforms, consumers don't stop trading, they find offshore alternatives.

Offshore Already Exists

The alternative is already there, and it's unregulated.

Platforms operating outside the U.S. regulatory framework are already accessible via VPN or crypto wallets. State crackdowns hand market share to these platforms while removing CFTC protections.

The Irony of Enforcement

State actions undermine the very protections they cite.

State regulators argue they're acting in consumers' interests. But every enforcement action against a regulated platform weakens the consumer protection infrastructure including KYC, AML, and market surveillance that the CFTC mandates.

The Revenue Paradox

Blocking regulated platforms costs states revenue, too.

One argument for state jurisdiction is tax revenue. But offshore platforms generate no U.S. tax revenue whatsoever. When consumers are pushed offshore, states lose any potential regulatory benefit.

Without clear federal guidance, consumers lose the ability to freely choose safe, transparent, regulated platforms. Unclear rules push consumers toward unregulated markets.

Help keep prediction markets safe, transparent, and American.

Join the coalition. Support federal oversight.

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